The Platform
Regatta runs mock prediction markets on value-driving biotech events, then pays analysts only for being right.
Regatta covers the events that move biotech valuations: FDA regulatory actions, Phase 2 and Phase 3 primary endpoint readouts, and advisory committee votes. Each is framed as a precise, resolvable question with a known resolution date and source of truth.
How a market worksForecast, score, select.
Analysts forecast outcomes using in-platform skill points — not money. As evidence arrives, live odds re-price. When the event resolves against its objective source, every forecast is scored on calibration: not merely whether the call was right, but whether the stated confidence matched the realized frequency.
Analysts are compensated on calibration-weighted accuracy across resolved events. Accurate forecasters are rewarded and their track records grow; persistently inaccurate ones are removed. New analysts are added continuously. Over time this selection pressure ratchets the aggregate accuracy upward.
Why the aggregate is accurate- Skin in the game. Compensation is tied to measured accuracy, so the incentive and the output point the same direction.
- Calibration over bravado. A confident wrong call costs more than a hedged one. The scoring rule rewards honesty about uncertainty.
- Selection, not seniority. Track records are earned on resolved events, visible to subscribers, and independent of title or affiliation.
Regatta opens with a focused set of forecastable readouts spanning oncology, immunology and inflammation, and regulatory actions — a mix set by Regatta and selected with launch partners. Coverage expands continuously after launch.
Pre-launch, this page describes methodology only. Regatta publishes no forward probability estimates before launch.