Index
Research
Retrospective and methodology work, published openly. Datasets you can download; analyses you can check.
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Every Phase 3 oncology readout, 2015–2025: endpoints, effect sizes, FDA outcomes
A primary dataset compiled from ClinicalTrials.gov, FDA approval letters, and peer-reviewed sources. Downloadable CSV, with methodology and analysis.
In preparation -
Decomposition mechanics, worked on a resolved historical example
Breaking a single past catalyst into estimable components and recombining them — start to finish.
In preparation -
Advisory committee voting patterns, 2015–2025
How AdComm votes have moved over a decade, and what the record says about predictability.
In preparation -
What predicted the 2024 oncology PDUFAs in retrospect
A hindsight analysis of which signals actually tracked outcomes — and which did not.
In preparation
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